Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, leading scientists warn.
The Earth could tip over the 1.5C warming limit within the next 3 years if current carbon dioxide emissions do not decrease. This is the warning coming from more than 60 of the world’s leading climate scientists in the most recent global warming update.
Nearly 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in the historic Paris agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change.
But countries have continued to burn coal, oil and gas at record levels and chop down carbon-rich forests – putting the goal in jeopardy.
Climate change has already worsened many weather extremes – such as the UK’s 40C heat in July 2022 – and has rapidly raised global sea levels, threatening coastal communities.
“Things are all moving in the wrong direction,” said Prof Piers Forster
“We’re seeing some unprecedented changes and we’re also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well.”
These changes “have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions”, he added.
At the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated only 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) could be emitted, to have even a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C. However, by the start of this year the “carbon budget” had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes.
The reduced “budget” is mainly due to continuous emissions of CO2, which has hit a record high, and other greenhouse gases like methane, although estimates are also now more accurate after improvements.
130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is exhausted.
This would see the world breaching the target set by the Paris agreement, though the planet would probably not pass 1.5C of human-caused warming until a few years later.
Find out more here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4l927dj5zo
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